The 2012 election season has already begun. Numerous Republicans are already testing the waters and CPAC held their conference and straw poll last week.
In Florida, Democrat Bill Nelson will be seeking a third term. He easily defeated former Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris 60.3% to 38.1% in 2006.
Bill Nelson
This next go-round will not be as easy for Nelson. In 2006, the country was dissatisfied with the direction led by the Republican Party so Nelson rode the pendulum in the other direction. But now we’re seeing that pendulum swing back to the right.
But that only tells a portion of the story. The fact is, most Floridians are apathetic to the job Nelson has done. A PPP Poll from December, 2010 shows Nelson with a job approval of 36%, a disapproval of 33% and another 31% are not sure.
When you look at Nelson’s chief competition for 2012 you see that many Floridians probably are not familiar with the Republican field.
Former Governor Jeb Bush has a 51% favorable rating as opposed to 40% unfavorable.
70% have no opinion of Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos. 78% have no opinion on State Representative Adam Hasner. 56% have no opinion on Connie Mack IV. Mack even has some name recognition as his father (Connie Mack III) was a former US Senator.
Mason-Dixon polling just released a new poll asking the question ‘if the election were held today, who would you vote for?’ Since numerous candidates have zero name recognition, the poll is mostly meaningless however there is one strong indicator – most people don’t seem to be enamored by Bill Nelson (side note: including me).
Jeb Bush leads Nelson 49% to 41%.
Jeb & George Bush
Nelson holds leads on each of the remaining Republican challengers:
- Adam Hasner 46 – 24
- Haridopolos 48 – 25
- Nelson beats Connie Mack IV 45 – 40
- Former US Senator George LeMieux 49 – 35
Why is this important? On August 19, 2009, former Florida Governor Charlie Crist led former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio in the polls by a wide 55% – 26% margin. At that time, Crist was an extremely popular governor (who’s only real mistake was hugging President Obama while supporting the stimulus package) and Rubio was still relatively unknown.
A full 6 months earlier in the election cycle, Nelson finds himself in closer races with even bigger unknown candidates. Granted, the Crist – Rubio polling included only Republicans but the point is the same. Rubio was unknown and the polling numbers showed it.
There are more than 20 months until the 2012 election and plenty of time to make whoever ends up being the GOP candidate a household name. At the same time, they can easily demonstrate the weaknesses of Nelson.
Mike Haridopolos
Nelson is also in trouble within his own party. He is not a popular senator and showed very little while serving in a Republican majority. He has shown slightly more since the Democrats reclaimed the Senate and then the White House but he has not demonstrated that he can be a strong leader.
It would be wise if the Democratic Party put up a primary challenger for Nelson. But there are too few Democrats and even less than can generate a positive buzz. History has shown that the Florida Democratic Party struggles when promoting their candidates regardless of the culture.
Former Florida CEO Alex Sink ran for governor against an unknown Rick Scott, who was CEO of Columbia / HCA when they were charged with the largest Medicare fraud in US history. His current company, Solantic is currently under investigation and the Democratic Party could not lead her to victory.
Worse still was the campaign for former Congressman Kendrick Meek. It was amazing that the Democratic Party could not get Meek’s message out. Very few people knew about Meek or what he stood for outside of the straight Democratic Party line.
Even with the changes in the Florida Democratic Party leadership, there have been no indications that anything is going to improve. No viable candidates. No strong message. Very weak campaigns.
More than 1 year prior to the 2010 election, I called the Florida Senate race for Marco Rubio. Today, I call the race for whomever the Republicans nominate.
Jeb Bush is a shoo-in and will win with over 60% of the vote. Mike Haridopolos will also win handedly. Hasner would be the closest of the 3. I doubt very strongly if LeMieux wins the nomination nor do I feel Mack will win the nomination.
Bill Nelson’s re-election in 2012 is in serious jeopardy and I don’t see Nelson or the Florida Democratic Party doing the right things to prevent that.
Adam Hasner
