A quick analysis of the 2012 Presidential race.
Obama’s big problem: President Barack Obama is so focused on winning the moderate vote (independents, moderate Republicans) that he is losing his base. They won’t vote for Romney or any other GOP candidate. But they will vote for the Green Party candidate or the equivalent or just as bad, they’ll stay home. This will deliver the White House to the GOP. It’s amazing that progressives will stay home and let a terrible candidate win. Doubt that could happen? Look at the results of 2010.
Romney’s big problem: Even though Mitt Romney is still in the Republican Party, the Tea Party will treat him with contempt and will make him look like a combination of Obama and former Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Their hatred of Romney and large money support will help Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann. Side note: It would be surprising if Perry or Bachmann didn’t select Florida Senator Marco Rubio as their running mate. Rubio will deliver Florida and help with the Hispanic vote. He’s young, well-spoken and good looking. If the IRS hasn’t indicted him after an investigation that began 18 months ago, I doubt they will.
Obama’s best hope: Romney wins the nomination and the Tea Party nominates their own candidate. Logically, the only way Obama can win in Nov 2012 is if there is a recovery in the economy and job market. As long as the Republicans control the House and the filibuster in the Senate, that will never happen. Remember, they vowed to make Obama a 1-term president. But if Romney wins the GOP nomination, there is a decent chance that the Tea Party nominates Perry or Bachmann as their nominee splitting the GOP ticket. The Tea Party has demonstrated that they will put their anger ahead of logic. Many in the Tea Party will vote for Romney but enough will vote for Bachmann that Obama can win.
Ron Paul as the King-Maker: Let’s get this straight: Ron Paul can not win the presidency. Ron Paul announced that he will not run for reelection in the House. That means he’s committed to running for president and if he loses, he’ll retire. He won’t win the nomination. Too many in the Tea Party and moderates think he’s nuts and so does Fox News. He could run on the Libertarian ticket and that will actually hurt Obama. There is a fringe of the far left base that likes Paul for his anti-war stance. Add to it, they like that he’s for legalizing pot. They never look any further into his positions: That he was against the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960’s. He thinks restaurants should be able to serve who they want. He wants to kill every federal agency including the Department of Education. He wants to get rid of all regulations. If liberals would just read up on Ron Paul, they would discount him as a crazy – more so than Dennis Kucinich who they laughed off after it came out that he saw a UFO.